Comments

I think Boeing have it right. The A380 won't help people get from Bristol UK to Chicago. It will serve major routes like London Heathrow to JFK.

Posted by Tim Almond at February 1, 2005 9:13 AM

Tim, you may be technically correct, but (like the "crazy" 747) the A380 will make Airbus a "Lovemark" for decades to come, and Boeing a "follower."

Posted by tom peters at February 1, 2005 10:25 AM

Actually, I think both have probably blown it building such big jets. The A380 just seems like so much European Union "my jet is bigger than your jet" subsidized hype than anything else. The economics of the business suggest that the high end business flyer can easily be lured away by the likes of Eclipse Jet based air limos (eclipseaviation.com) while the low end flyers end up on smaller regional jets on multi-stop flights.

The big jets will remain economical for large parts of Asia where distance and number of travelers suggests a "bus/train" economic model, but even then, as India and China create affluence and smaller, more distributed economic centers you may even see that change.

It just seems as though the amount of kaizen you can apply to the basic business model of the current airline industry is very limited. You can't really add new features to the "get from point A to point B as fast as possible" and still stay within the cost structure of the business. Business travelers are willing to pay higher prices but the only way to get them to keep doing that is to keep increasing the value over time. IMHO, the only way to do that is to start adding to the basic value proposition: i.e. add features such as "on demand departure times", "business jet style interiors", "real on board business services", etc.

As far as non-business travelers, they are still price sensitive. They might complain about the pretzels but they're not going to pay extra for it, especially when its a 3 hour flight. Just turn on the TV and vege out for the flight and make it as cheap as possible.

Then again, maybe I'm just projecting my own travel preferences on the rest of the world...

Now what I will pay for is suborbital hops that get me to Asia in 30 minutes and give me one hell of a rid in the process! (http://masten-space.com)

;-)

-MM

Posted by Michael Mealling at February 1, 2005 11:10 AM

It's as if Civility is being clipped away, one twig at a time. I was just in Houston. I pay several hundred bucks a year for the Continental club access; but at whatever concourse I was on, the club was shuttered with a handwritten sign saying that there were still clubs at other concourses--fat lot of good that does. "Only" a "little" thing.

Posted by tom peters at February 1, 2005 11:45 AM

I know (re A380) it's "all about the economics," but I'm like Branson (supporter of the 380), and think ... STILL ... that flying could be "cool" once again!

Posted by tom peters at February 1, 2005 11:46 AM

And the first US carrier to buy one will immediately double the number of seats, and sell LA to NYC flights for $49 return. Six months later, they will ask the feds for loan guarantees and tax relief becasue they are going Chapter 11. Call me cynical. Call me a disillusioned frequent flyer.

Posted by Brian Tingley at February 1, 2005 12:12 PM

IMHO, flying could be cool again if it were more personal. Just you, three other people, and a pilot and you get to decide where you want to go once you're in the air. At $0.67/mile direct operating cost of an Eclipse that puts a per person cost of Atlanta to Dulles at $167/person (assuming a full load). That's half of what Delta charges me now for a walk up fair. Double that price for the amortized cost of the plane plus a good sized markup and you'll have a plane that leaves whenever you want it to, goes wherever you want it to, and has a nice roomy, business friendly interior.

No need for club rooms....

Posted by Michael Mealling at February 1, 2005 12:47 PM

The A380 is a shining example of projects that Europeans do very well. Very much analogous to the smashing succes of GSM technology or chip cards.

Behind the scenes there is a heck of a lot of innovation at Airbus, from fly-no-wire to assembly methods that boost productivity at Airbus plants. The whole Airbus story speaks of a challenger's passion and success. I know some people will say Airbus was subsidized but that's simply not accurate, at least not more accurate than stating that Boeing was supported by the US Military.

The A380 was a Big Hairy Audacious Goal and it sure ssems to have everything going for it. Airbus should not become complacent though and there are still tons of innovations to be realized to make air travel extra cool again. Perhaps this will mean making it possible to make "suborbital hops", perhaps it will mean making small aircrafts more accessible for individual travelers... Who knows?

I don't think Airbus will wipe out Boeing or vice versa, but ultimately, they will both be in some trouble if they don't manage to fly on something other than kerosene.

Still, for now the A380 is mega cool and the Europeans deserve praise for making this happen so swiftly.

Posted by Alex at February 1, 2005 1:55 PM

Cool....Boeings 7E7 looks like a cool jet!

Posted by Mike at February 1, 2005 2:02 PM

I know I'm going a little off topic here Tom but we over here in the UK are amused at how you chaps across the pond struggle with our honours system. Richard Branson is now Sir Richard Branson - The 'Sir' is not optional unlike 'Mr' which is. Colin Powell, who is also a Knight, would be Sir Colin Powell, but only a Brit can be addressed as 'Sir'. Knighthoods of Powell, Reagan are called Honorary Knighthoods. Some actors and authors leave out the Sir from the credits and book covers out of their choice (eg. Hopkins, Fiennes). We say Sir Richard and not Sir Branson.

Sir Tom Peters has a certain ring to it though :)

Posted by Hiran de Silva at February 4, 2005 8:37 PM