Comments

Is it really that serious? From time to time a dangerous event seems to be a potential risk for our health or our economies and then nothing extraordinary happens. I remember when i was a child i often heard the world oil reserves would extint in few decades. There were also serious studies that held that opinion. And what has happened? Well, GWBush took this risk seriously, I think...

On the other hand, new real risks appear and we feel unable to face them in a practical way. Yes, new illnesses, but also Katrina and the changing environment.

Is it a matter of the interest a risk could have for some industries that they expand a psychological fear?

Posted by Felix Gerena at September 19, 2005 1:11 PM

Silly question...do ALL birds carry Avian flu? Do outer islands (like Hawai'i) need to be directly worried? except for the folks that would bring it in?? Need more clarification on this if possible!! Thanks for the help!!

Posted by erika at September 19, 2005 5:29 PM

Serious, scary or both? Having read a number of accounts of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic and the erie parallels between the way that the Avian Flu is developing and what we know about pandemics in general, I think the guy from the CDC's assessment that this is the time for "modest panic" is right on the money. Not that there's much we can do about it.

If you read the recent BusinessWeek article about the challenges associated with trying to contain such an outbreak, I'm left feeling even more nervous about this than many of the other "threats" that face us.

Thank's Tom for giving this the prominence that it deserves.

Posted by Andrew Hayden at September 19, 2005 6:41 PM

As much as I promote proactive planning and disaster prevention, a pandemic could "just be" the Universe cleaning house. Or, if not a pandemic - perhaps a global superstorm,bringing on a new Ice Age...or massive methane explosions from the ocean, killing all life....or a world-killer asteroid (and no Bruce Willis type in sight)...Any and all of which can and may happen. Since we're part of nature (as much as some of we like to think we're masters of it here in the U.S., at least before Katrina blew in) - the hard reality may be there is little to nothing we can really do about such things. Nature will find a way - virus mutations and such.

All that said, one reason I've been working to simplify my life over the past ten years or so is that I believe we're living in the last of mankind's "golden times" (nationally, economically, and environmentally) All things, good and bad, come to an end. I was, however, hoping to make it to at least 95 before cashing in - asleep in a comfy bed,after a few perfect martinis and a great dinner with beloved friends. We'll see...

Posted by Mary Schmidt at September 19, 2005 9:16 PM

Excellent post. Thank you.

Posted by Troy Worman at September 19, 2005 11:14 PM

When Annie and I go shopping or for a walk we always comment about overweight young people. My point? We would be better advised to spend time money and effort as parents and role models to young people by doing more exercise and promoting healthy living. Like Mary we are doing our bit in attempting to prolong our life as long as we can. We both gave up smoking (a greater pandemic than flu) in the last two years and decided to really make the effort. We now exercise almost every day – including running, weight training and swimming. Yep of course – God forbid - we may die tomorrow but by doing something positive we feel pragmatically we are increasing our odds of dying at 95 years of age whilst bungie jumping off the tallest bridge in New Zealand. Sorry to stray off the subject and I am not under-estimating the threat of this flu thing but I am more worried about tackling obesity, smoking and encouraging exercise among our younger population. I am sure I have read we are facing for the first time in our history when grandparents regularly outlive their grandchildren - that is scary and I would love to see more done to prevent that - and we baby boomers have a key role in that campaign.

Posted by Trevor Gay at September 20, 2005 3:30 AM

Trevor--as a public health expert, (at least as qualified as some un-named CDC official) are you of the opinion that the threat of a bird flu pandemic has been over-blown? Is Tom's post kind of a chicken little rant? I agree with you (and I've read some of the articles about the possible pandemic) that we face more serious risks to our health through our poor lifestyle choices than from this disease.

I suggest there are two points to remember about this issue. First, no matter how much integrity the journalistic source has, they always play up the emergency angle of any story like this. Always. Every time. Why? To sell magazines (or newspapers or to get higher ratings). Cynical? No, sometimes the truth just sounds like cynicism. (Anyone remember SARS?)
Second, all diseases run their course. Even killers like AIDS reach a stability level, people develop resistances, and life continues.

I'm going to keep my organic crops going, but I'm not trading in my 401K for gold yet.

Posted by Mike at September 20, 2005 6:53 AM

I started digging an underground shelter in preparation for the Millenium Bug and I'm still digging. I'd just like to have a cool shelter to hang out in when chaos crashes in. Perhaps the domestic disaster shelter market will see some growth?

The Avian Flu does concern me, especially when I'm still in Ireland and in close confines with a small population that would be devestated if it ever made its way over here. We still have our potassium/iodine tablets that were issued several years ago (now out of date) in the event that the Sellafield Nuclear (or nuculer as GW likes to say) Plant was ever attacked by terrorists.

Perhaps everyone should rent the movie "Outbreak" to see a dramatic depiction of what occurs during a viral outbreak in modern society. Cool movie.

Posted by Tom O'Leary at September 20, 2005 8:56 AM

I've relocated the olde career to a smallish town [55,000] with abundant everything - plus a gun club in the neighborhood! Interesting that when India has crisis the populace behaves, when USA blacks face crisis looting and riots result!

Posted by Sean at September 21, 2005 8:54 AM

Sean, I think you missed about 99.999% of the story in N.O. People helping one another in communities of various colors. Frankly, I think your comments are bullshit. America is not India. Ever heard of the "Wild West"? We are a violent nation, always have been. Somehow I don't think it was the slaves who started that. Incidentally, the biggest riots in our history, eg Great Depression breadline riots in DC, where whites.

Posted by tom peters at September 22, 2005 8:19 AM

Tom - the India quote was from a media source last week - sorry don't recall the Indian source. Love your Democrat liberal reaction though - making sure to mention whites as prime culprits!

I'd say Africa, China, and the Russian/Soviets are violent to the extreme given the 10's of millions of their own they've killed - our civil war seemed to be a big mistake though - probably should have isolated/starved the South until they came to their senses - 1/2 million+ killed - what a waste.

Posted by Sean at September 22, 2005 8:34 AM

To Tom's point (liberal Democrat slant - Nope. He was talking facts and history) - Don't forget the draft riots in NYC during the Civil War. That was largely whites, who killed a number of African-Americans in a frenzy. That was a class issue (as was the problem in New Orleans, the poor historically have lived in the low parts of the city.) During the Civil War, the poor whites were literally cannon fodder, right off the boats. The wealthy could buy their ways out (Hmmm...sound familiar?). Violence and irrational behavior is a human failing - regardless of country or color - and it manifests itself in different ways, depending on the times and the society.

(More "bad white" examples - if you really want to go there, Sean. The Crusades, The Spanish Inquisition, The Holocaust, WWI, WWII, The Spanish-American War, The intentional extermination of the Native Americans...)

As for "starving out the South" - wow, I don't even know where to begin to respond that one. It's just so wrong on so many levels. For one, the South was an agricultural society (part of the reason they lost the war - too few factories, too few railroad lines). Close the borders and "starve them?" Nope. Wouldn't work. And, for what it's worth, lots of people did starve, including in the prisoner of war camps.

Posted by Mary Schmidt at September 22, 2005 9:41 AM

Three cheers to the host for his calling bullshit. Three cheers to the Americans who with compassion have helped the victims of Katrina. Let's hope that Rita finds less people and property to destroy. God bless America and forgive us our trespasses.

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P.S I hope the press is playing Henny Penny with H5N1. To get back to the origianl blog point. The Avian Flew would really suck.

Posted by Gary Fox at September 22, 2005 6:51 PM

Perfect Mary - making my point that liberals like yourself love to advance color socio-cultural themes to try to promote the USA divisive Democrat party agenda.

The main thing about avian and other [war] catastrophe's is to try and be smart about moving toward new technology, biotech, and patterns of solution recognition that prevent and minimize - and the liberal Democrats have no answers - no wonder in state house, House, Senate and presidential votes the liberals are losing like never before and finding masses leaving them for independent and republican status.

Posted by Sean at September 23, 2005 9:41 AM

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Posted by tom peters at September 24, 2005 5:54 AM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3037915/site/newsweek/

Newsweek had this radical reform for health care article - 87 year old author - keep radically healthful!

Posted by Sean at September 24, 2005 10:01 AM

Yeah, Sean, I more or less think right vitamins, right diet, lots of exercise may be the best defence. Resilience rules--or some such.

Posted by tom peters at September 25, 2005 9:20 AM

Tom,

cheap viagra from india I'll post twice since your oddball screening system seems to seriously suck (i.e. your helpers are not looking through first-time posters, even though this is my fifth time I got screened.)

In short, your post gave me chills. My company helped our New Orleans partners get up in business within 1 week. But what would happen if 50 partners went down? Would we crash. My guess is that if, as the paranoid (and after reading the article, I find their logic to be absolute worst-case scenario psycho) Foreign Affairs writer postulates, all commerce ceases to exist, most companies would cease to focus on commerce, and instead focus on rebuilding their community, whether in Vermont, Denver, Tokyo or Geneva.

As for my credit cards and mortgage, I imagine I will be one of millions that default...heavily. I'd like to see them re-sell my property in this scenario.

Back in 1999 I had a friend that claimed I should buy guns and gold. And I remember having my temperature scanned during the SARS fiasco. Our global, inextricably linked economies have a doubled edge.

I agree with you though. This topic cries for more attention.

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