Comments

"When, not if" presumes several things. Most important is that Governments and Health Authorities will be the major cause of this catastrophe, that is, there is NO WAY that facilities will keep up with this type of pandemic. NONE. "If avian flu becomes more than a threatened pandemic, it will have done so by political and economic design."

Statistics ? Even if half of this information is correct - it's still scary:

http://www.vaccinationdebate.com/web2.html

Or this:

"President Bush's recent remarks about mandating vaccinations for avian flu is further evidence of the militarization of public health care and would also seem to reflect a dangerous misunderstanding about disease and palliative methodologies. Medical science, especially in its initial stages, is replete with side effects and even ramifications that can carry over into the next generation. What is perhaps even more worrisome than Bush's plans to militarize public health care is his focus, one might say obsession, on martial law as a curative for almost every weighty issue of his second term."

http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=1320

Posted by Gretchen Keeds at October 27, 2005 9:11 AM

We had a joke a few years ago when I was in Cambodia and this all started up:

"Why did the expat cross the road?
To try to get away from the chicken."

No joke though, at this point.

Posted by James Hathaway at October 27, 2005 9:21 AM

Take a look at this fabuolus inter-active grahpic illustration on BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/world/05/bird_flu_map/html/1.stm

Posted by Trevor Gay at October 27, 2005 10:32 AM

Tom, though I feel sensitive about the human catastrophe the flu could bring, I must say I would celebrate an economic catastrophe, for I find economy rigidly stablished. We would see perhaps more opportunities then.

Posted by Felix Gerena at October 27, 2005 10:42 AM

Here's a link to the online Hong Kong Standard article:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=12&art_id=4340&sid=5184851&con_type=1

Posted by Michael from UK at October 27, 2005 11:01 AM

October 31 Newsweek "The Bird Flu" cover story - interesting/low-IQ deadly that some Asians go as far as to sleep with their "prize" birds ...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032542/site/newsweek/

Posted by Sean at October 27, 2005 11:04 AM

And, Sean, many of the backwoods locals in the likes of Romania are hiding their birds from authorities because they are their only livelihood. Hard to believe as a Vermonter who almost cheers when a fox absconds with a noisy rooster. But I guess that sadly illustrates how out of touch I am with about three-quarters of humanity.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 11:14 AM

Trevor, Wow. Cocerning the bird outbreaks, a textbook picture-definition of the idea of exponential expansion.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 11:17 AM

Yup, it'll all go pear shaped if the virus mutates into something that can kill us, but does anyone know what the chances are of that mutation happening?

Posted by Andrew Baines at October 27, 2005 11:17 AM

Andrew, that's more or less my point. Smart people are of many minds, but the consenus in my mind is that the downside is so large, and the uncertainty itself suggests that there is a real possibility of a catastrophic result that one should considering acting. If it were only the scientific cranks who were alarmed, that would be one thing, but sensible experts are totally uncertain ... which gives one pause for thought. It says to me that there is a sane possibility of an insane result.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 11:22 AM

My actions: Continue to live in the country, grow, eat, and preserve organic veggies, buy local beef from farmers, know how to obtain local wild "galloping" beef, know how to make beer, know close friends who can also and who can make wine. Lots of bottled water, extra propane, and so on already on hand. Hey, sounds like the way I live now except for all the travel. (My doctor has some good oxy-type mega-nutrition natural whole-food vitamins that really help prevent getting sick from airplane air, so maybe I can still do my thing.)

The real question should be not what actions are we going to take for ourselves, but what actions are we prepared to take for OTHERS? A lot of us can barricade ourselves in our compounds and ride out a storm, but what are we going to do to assist those who cannot? There's the hard part...

Posted by Mike at October 27, 2005 12:17 PM

Today's Headline in NYC morning paper - Doctor's hoarding Tamiflu..apparently New Yorkers are taking things into their own hands and hoarding the flu vaccine Tamiflu - even doctors are clammoring in Canada to stockpile it for their families according to Mark Lazar, President of LePharmacy.com, a Canadian internet company. Also, Roche, the sole maker of Tamiflu will begin negotiations today with two of the four manufacturers in the USA selected to produce more of Tamiflu..anyone know how long it takes to manufacture this vaccine.

Posted by S. Guglielmi at October 27, 2005 12:18 PM

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that someone's not folloeing you.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 1:34 PM

P.S., Mike you caught me. I am avowedly trying to scare the shit out of you, in the direction of action just short of paralysis.

Moreover, there's damn little cost to you if I'm wrong.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 1:55 PM

Some S.O.B. in my Navy days taught me the "7Ps": Prior Proper Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

(I am eternally grateful.)(I'm 62.9, it's 3:01am in Taipei, and I'm totally re-working this morning's presentation. I'M A BELIEVER.)

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 1:58 PM

Hey, I was a Boy Scout, so I know all about being prepared. It's easy for me because of where and how I live already--same for you, Tom on your farm in Vermont. But what about the person in Manhattan who lives in a high-rise and takes the subway? How is that person going to prepare against a pandemic? It's a lot harder for many than it is for us. Spreading panic and fear doesn't help those who can't do much in the first place, it just increases the likelihood that the thin veneer of civilization will crack and lead to further chaos.

And keep trying, Tom, you haven't scared me yet.

Posted by Mike at October 27, 2005 2:43 PM

Mostly right Mike. But I am assuming (probably correctly) that I won't be on the farm if something goes down, but at least initially quaranteened in Taipei (where I am now) or Moscow (where I was 2 weeks ago) or Bucharest (where I'll be next month). So part of my personal approach to this is precisely how my family and friends and colleagues ... not down on the farm ... will handle (the 7Ps) things.

Posted by tom peters at October 27, 2005 3:07 PM

I'm not sure this has been mentioned or not but it is the often unsanitary conditions in these areas that cause the spread of diseases.

Our knowledge of disease and how to minimize the spread in the West will probably lessen the effects of it if it does come to Europe and North America. This is not 1918.

As someone did mention earlier..we will need to be ready with out reach of aid for Asian regions if this does jump into humans.

Perhaps someone can verify this but...Did anyone see the rumor that Donald Rumsfeld is a part owner of the company that developed one of the vaccines? Strange, if true!

Posted by Alex at October 27, 2005 3:46 PM

I might have to limit my bird networking to emails and blogs for a while.

Posted by Olivier Blanchard at October 27, 2005 6:28 PM

As a funeral director and (by statute in Massachsetts) a quasi-government agent when it comes to board of health issues and the filing of appropriate documentation for each death, I can say that we have ABSOLUTELY NO INFORMATION OR DIRECTION from local, state or federal levels.

AND, if this thing hits on a large scale (which is very likely), decision making will stumble back down to the local level. The federal governemnt is not large enough to handle a true national emergency. We need LOTS of help and leadership to get local governments developing the kinds of contingency plans necessary to see us through.

Who's going to dig the graves for instance? Where will we bury these dead? Not in individual graves, so what place do we set aside? How do we document and manage these dispositions? On and on, we are not prepared and we need lots of clear leadership and mandates to help mitigate a true societal breakdown.

I keep up the drum beat among my colleagues using my website www.funeralwords.com. I also write to my industry leaders (particularly at the larger corporations) to see who I can fire up about this. So far, just blah from the lot of them.

Keep preaching Tom. Don't quit on this issue.

Thank you and have a fantastic trip,

BT

Posted by BT Hathaway at October 27, 2005 9:40 PM

Tom - Talking of paranoia ... I used to have a sign in my office "I'm not paranoid - I KNOW the bastards are our to get me"

Posted by Trevor Gay at October 28, 2005 2:54 AM

I guess Im a fool!

Posted by Caig Jones at October 28, 2005 6:00 AM

Ditto in Thailand. In the Bangkok Post and The Nation, bird flu stories are more or less daily at this point.

Posted by AJ Hoge at October 28, 2005 6:19 AM

http://www.osha.gov/dsg/guidance/avian-flu.html
Avian flu safety precautions above - with embedded links.

I cut out chicken and turkey and poultry for some reason about 1 year ago. Heat though kills virus - so make it well done poultry lovers - and if need be avoid crowds - wear a mask - use eyewash - keep a radically strong immune system - have fun - exercise - drink plenty of ultra clean water - become a "neatnick - germo/viro phobe" - pray to make it and flourish ... drive a hybrid perhaps ... remember how swine flu and Y2K went down for relevance - read and watch for the latest ... be an individual looking out for #1 and family ... and if the Sox can win the last 2 World Series after a zillion years without - then miracles do happen.

Posted by Sean at October 28, 2005 9:24 AM

Tom -

I too take the threat of this potential pandemic quite seriously. As someone who was actively engaged in working with AIDS and the CDC, it reignited my interest in how it will be handled in terms of notification here in the US so much so that I believe there is a potential opportunity to take existing technology from the private sector and apply it immediately to public health. What you ask am I talking about? The CDC is the primary agency here for tracking disease; historically, they are notoriously bureaucratic and slow to respond. There should be a way to notify the public immediately via online of flu rates by zip code. This is not a novel idea; Roche pharma has made a poor marketing attempt at using their Flu tracker software as a device here. But it does raise the question why shouldn't the CDC be able to come up with a statistically relevant application that is based on input from healthcare professionals? Would it be perfect? No, however, could it off-set panic and provide the public a sense of how their gov't actually is making an attempt at prevention, yes. This would indicate a major shift for the CDC because it would be going beyond what they typically report by which is the MMWR - the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which is quite obviously after the fact. The emphasis to date is on vaccine development which is profoundly important, but we know that even if we have one it won't be available to everyone due to cost, manufacturing, etc. If it goes there will be panic and havoc that will be spurred by media coverage. Having a system in place that at the very least could assist public health in handling the epidemic and the public would be beneficial. The challenge is getting well-meaning public health officials to agree on how to do it an effective manner. I tend to think the private sector could get it done if they were given the data directly from the CDC...It's like taking the underlying technology that you see with the Weather Channel and applying public health data. And I think it's worth mentioning that the weather channel was initially bawked at by most within the media industry. Ideally, this is how our gov't should be thinking. Do I think this will happen? Perhaps, but it will be late in the cycle and after considerable loss of life. This is one application that I would like to make happen. What are your thoughts?

Posted by Sheryl at October 29, 2005 10:49 AM

Mike, I am with you that the tough issue in case a pandemia was declared will be how to help those fully engaged in the daily life of the cities. I don't find neither alarmistic approaches to be useful; we live already in full alarmistic mode. So who needs more? I'd rather prefer discussing and bringing solutions here taking as starting point the worst possible scenario.

Here, if economy crashes and millions die, doesn't this make you think about some kind of lessons guys?

Posted by Omara at October 29, 2005 11:30 PM

In Bangalore, chicken is an alltime favorite. Free-range chicken and bred chicken often share the same cages in shops.

Bangalore is also a fav. destination for migratory birds. And they do mingle with free-range chicken.

Will someone tell the world?

Jay, from Bangalore

Posted by Jayakumar Hariharan at October 31, 2005 5:53 AM

Trevor - Thanks for that BBC link. I was very close to converting an existing social map to show a chronology of cases (bird and human). You just saved me hours, days, weeks, months of work! Nice one.

Folks, aside from self-preservation, I'm afraid that there just isn't much that can be done...not that we shouldn't try. It's one of those sad truths about our world, and a reminder about how powerless we really are.

Think of the millions of people starving in the world today. In Africa alone...in Niger alone. It's not that we CAN'T do something about it; it's that we don't. Likewise, and due to similiar sociological restraints that inhibit our ability to tackle major world issues, the avian flu will run its course through our world (if a pandemic occurs).

We can keep alert, educated, and prepared as individuals however, and I would echo everyone's assertion that we should...just in case.

Happy Halloween!

Posted by Tom O'Leary at October 31, 2005 7:58 AM

I'm knowledge-contrained more than anything on this issue. Neither an alarmist nor fool, yet. But can someone tell me...

What did we learn from SARS? I ask that question sincerely and without an agenda. My fuzzy recollections are that we had an Asian basis for a potential pandemic, spread human-to-human, but it didn't pan out in catastrophe (obviously). Was that a relevant parallel situation to this one that we can hope for a similar contained spread of the virus, or is it dangerous to think of that situation as parallel?

Posted by Sam T at October 31, 2005 2:20 PM

Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Strafor) says: "Calm down. ... There is no scientifically plausible reason to expect such a crossover to be imminent..

4 differences between 1918 scenario and any new flu:
1) virus is different
2) 1918 not exactly typical year with World War I
3) Much healthier people today
4) Antibiotics
"
Full text here: http://tinyurl.com/8ssmr

Posted by Jeff VanDyke at October 31, 2005 9:01 PM

Jeff. I'd have to contradict your points, inasmuch as:

1. virus could be worse than the 1918 strain
2. the mobility of people today is much higher than during WWI
3. More UNhealthy people today (obesity, lack of exercise)
4. Our abuse of antibiotics make them less effective today.

Posted by Tom O'Leary at November 1, 2005 11:48 AM

Hi Tom O'

You can always rely on the good old BBC my friend :-)

Posted by Trevor Gay at November 2, 2005 6:28 AM

So true Trevor...a class act in an age of media circuses!

Posted by Tom O'Leary at November 2, 2005 7:34 AM

The gov't has a plan--finally. See what you think of it...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9896500/

Posted by Mike at November 2, 2005 11:50 AM

Sheryl: Look in the NYTimes this past Sunday and I think in the Week in Review - your very idea was proposed...Excellent creative thinking...we need more ideas like this to circulate..You might want to contact who wrote that article and synergize your ideas into a concrete plan. Good Luck.

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