dispatches from the new world of work

What the U.S. Does Right (Besides Wal*Mart)

The precarious state of America's economic future, courtesy China, seems to rank only behind, and perhaps not behind, terrorism on people's frights list. China is a clear economic "game-changer," no doubt about it. And God knows, I've beaten on American schools and corporations alike for their sluggish response to the need for revolutionary change.

But I did spend 30 years in Silicon Valley, home to the IS/IT mega-revolution. And I now have a home in Boston, home to (along with California et al.) the life sciences revolution. Announcement: We're doing pretty damned okay, and losing scant ground on the truly new, game-changer industries. For example, the Boston Globe on November 28 had an Op-ed piece on nanotechnology. It's already a multi-billion industry, and the quoted projection for 2014 is the emergence of a $2,600,000,000,000 ($2.6 TRILLION) industry. And the leader, by a country mile: the U.S.A.

Will China, Korea and others challenge us here? Of course! We'll doubtless give ground (hey, we're virtually it right now), but (1) the total pie will keep growing and (2) by 2014 there will doubtless (sure as shit) be new nanotech-like mega-industries on the drawing boards, and I'd not bet a farthing against the U.S. as lead pony.

Many lament (correctly, in the main) our declining share of engineering graduates and science majors. True enough, but I contend there is (still, for the foreseeable future) a Magic American Potion of: Lotsa smart, motivated people + New immigrant blood (never discount this) + Incredible research universities (and Gov't R&D infrastructure) + A generic/genetic entrepreneurial "instinct" to die for (including an almost unique American desire to make-a-ton before 40) + Wide and deep financial entrepreneurship (VCs, Angels, etc, etc) to die for + A deep-seated competitive (genetic again) urge to be/stay #1 + A generic capitalist "spirit" 300 years in the making and nurturing + Genetic openness (called "freedom" and "democracy" in the U.S.A. and the West in general) + Etc. (Or some such.)

Do I think China can be "stopped"? Of course not, save for the "democracy-openness problem" (major). Do I think Kmart and GM can be resurrected? Never. Do I expect as many Googles-Amgens in the future as in the past? Much as I'm fearful of going way out on a limb, I will anyway: Count on it!

(The argument above is a good accompaniment to the KURZWEIL Cool Friend interview. While Mr K may be wrong in the particulars, there's little doubt that a parade of Extreme Makeovers is our lot. Those ready to lead/pounce upon such Makeovers will stay atop the heap. An open, entrepreneurial society with a propensity for risktaking, and an infrastructure to support it, are as well positioned as possible. Frankly, I think the raw quantity of engineering degrees produced is pretty close to irrelevant.)

Tom Peters posted this on 12/01/05.

Comments

Things here in Silicon Valley have been slowing.
Unless you look around the corner, then whoa!
You have (once again) hit it on the head.
AMEN!

Posted by Michael J at December 1, 2005 8:47 AM

Amen to the SV magic - USA mindset seems to be miracles do happen - expect it.

Posted by Sean at December 1, 2005 10:13 AM

Sean: Perhaps there really are two kinds of people in the world:

Shit happens. Get over it!
Miracles happen. Expect it!

Posted by tom peters at December 1, 2005 10:25 AM

You guys over the pond have much to be proud of - not least your wonderful optimism. I love it. We have plenty to offer too by the way - even though we may not so outgoing. The British Naval Commander in charge of the recent amazing rescue of the stranded Russian submariners at the bottom of the Ocean summed it up. While the rest of the world was celebrating and generally â€˜whooping it upâ€™ our good old Brit officer just shrugged his shoulders and said very clinically 'That's just what we are trained to do' - typical Brit understatement. You guys perhaps under-estimate just how brilliant it is for the rest of the world to see your optimism. Our business economy could do with an injection of your enthusiasm and hoopla; and I say this respectfully, you could maybe just do with just a tiny bit of our Brit realism. :-)

Posted by Trevor Gay at December 1, 2005 11:32 AM

Hey tom, yes nanatechnolgy is the leverge that US have. No big deal. However, most of this nana technology is being fitted for Human /Life sceience correct ?? how much of that $2.6T value is being attributed to life sceince/health sector ??

Now flip the coin and take a look at Korea. They have are doing more stem cell research then the world over !! That is the amount of reserach equals or surpasses the rest of world !!

The deal here will be how much of these two sciences play a role in life scicence /medicine !!

Posted by /pd at December 1, 2005 12:13 PM

With Peter Drucker's passing I did an article search and brought up an April 1952 Nation's Business one entitled, "Productivity is an Attitude" wherein Drucker listed and commented on six traits of the American work place that make us uniquely geared for success. I think many of them are still with us but why in hell we do not introduce these same principles early on in our school settings is a big a mental disaster as any enviromental one we are currently experiencing.

Posted by Steve at December 1, 2005 1:24 PM

Hey Tom,
I just "listened" to Thomas Friedman's tome (it was an earful) - the world is flat.. He makes the case for investing heavily in Math and Science education. You however make the case for investing in "design" and "soft stuff" education, training..

The thing is, I agree with both of you, since both of you make sense.. NOW I'm confused!!!! Is there a middle ground somewhere? - train guys on math and science and girls on soft stuff, and stimulate egalitarian hiring??

A.S.

Posted by Arun Sadhashivan at December 2, 2005 10:17 AM

Mostly, Arun, I think it's what kids do with the training. I think Tom F puts far too much emphasis on the raw # of degrees, rather than what we (any nation) do with the training. I believe there are a sizeable # of national cultural attributes that are collectively far more important to national economic success than the # of degrees, or even patents.

Posted by tom peters at December 4, 2005 12:23 PM