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A Billion Is Not a Billion

Steve Rushin's column in Sports Illustrated this week is titled "A Billion People Can Be Wrong." He quotes a number of publications that claim the Super Bowl will be watched by 1 billion people in 225 countries. He then provides stats that show only 93 million people watched last year, with 98% of them in North America. As he points out, we're only 907 million people short of a billion.

Why is the Super Bowl such a hype magnet? Why are the advertising rates and the viewer stats so inflated? (Maybe this is where football's steroid use can be found). Yes, 93 million is an awful lot, but it sure isn't a billion.

Steve Yastrow posted this on 02/03/06.

Comments

Varies from case to case. We are a billion strong people in India where the game of cricket is a religion and followed by everybody to an extent that the Indian cricket board is destined to be one of the richest sports bodies in the world.

On the flip side, despite being a billion strong, we barely get a medal or two in the olympics.

More than majority, in can be a question of prefrence or quality.

Posted by Hiren Shah at February 3, 2006 2:55 AM


Hype isn't confined to the Superbowl. In the UK we regularly get told that our equivalent (soccer's FA Cup Final) "attracts a global audience of 1.5 billion" or whatever. I'm never sure how they measure it or whether its an auditable number!

I think it's a wider problem. So many things are now reported in hyperbolic, sensational fashion - it's lazy copy, pure and simple. Every discretion by a politician is a scandal, it gets called "something-Gate" and it inevitably "rocks the party to its foundations." Every football match is, "the most important game in the club's history, or at least since last week." Etc etc.

The world is turning black and white: no-one seems to be bothered about the numerous shades of grey that come in between.

BTW, whatever happened to the old definition of billion (1 million million)?

Posted by Mark J Foscoe at February 3, 2006 3:30 AM


.

Ha, ha, ha... loved your post Steve.

In my travels "and arguments" over Super Bowl with American Friends - none have ever been able to prove the Billion figure.

I have been in parts of the world when Super Bowl is on - and it's not even a blimp on peoples radars there.

The time difference, for example, in the Southern Hemisphere prevents any real primetime viewing - even on cable. In parts of Europe - even though the time zone is "kinder" to the USA time - it's just another sporting event followed ONLY by the fanatics during a different time of the day!

The rest of the world watches Soccer more than Super Bowl.

Bikes, super bikes, motor sport is huge in world numbers.

Wimbeldon and Grand Slams score in huge numbers.

The Olympics have their moments and barely do a consistent billion on each day of it's coverage.

Yes... we always have a good laugh at how "supposedly" this sport that is only USA based can have such huge numbers...

but in reality can only be less than 250 million at best.

On another note... if you're basically pushing, shoving, holding people back, carrying the ball under your arm and mostly throwing the ball - rather than kicking it - why the lie of calling it "football" ??

.

Posted by P. Primer at February 3, 2006 3:37 AM


Over here we just don't 'get it' anyway - your 'football' is a big girls game and just plain boring. Too much Razzmatazz and no skill.

Give me real football (SOCCER) every time

In any case your guys wear girls protective clothing and play in plush warm super stadiums. It seems to me your game is stopped more than it is active and the rules are too complex. And then you have the nerve to say the rules of our beloved English cricket are complicated!

Now ....

REAL football is playing in ankle deep mud on a freezing cold Saturday afternoon in winter in deepest, darkest England - no protective clothing for our boys. Just a hardy few hundred people watching and freezing as well! Yes without question ….Our football (soccer) is a game for REAL men!!

I guess I just lost the few American friends I had left!

Have a great weekend guys.

Yours ... very tongue in cheek :-)

Trevor - lifelong Manchester United Fan - your turn to throw the darts!

Posted by Trevor Gay at February 3, 2006 4:08 AM


MAN U Trevor? MAN U!!!!!!????? And I used to read your posts with such great interest. That's over now. It is a sad day. A sad day indeed...good luck with the rest of your life.

Posted by frederick kambo at February 3, 2006 4:58 AM


Frederick - don't be so unkind. Man Utd used to be a good football club!

Posted by Mark J Foscoe at February 3, 2006 5:07 AM


Trevor you got the ankle deep mud bit right but you forgot the requirment for sleet and rain to be blown horizontally across the pitch by a cold wind!!

Posted by PaulH at February 3, 2006 5:33 AM


Well, the most accurate figure that I've come across for this year's anticipated audience in 134 Million. Of course, the vast majority of viewers will be in North America. It will be broadcast across the world for Americans abroad. I watched the game 2 years ago in Ireland on NASN (North American Sports Network), which I signed up for through Sky Satellite.

The game is a tradition, and that's why so much hype is associated with it. It is another reason to get together with friends and family for an 'event'. The show is presented as a spectacular, so every part of it (the ads, the half-time show, etc.) are hyped, not unlike Christmas or any other traditional event.

Will this tradition survive? Probably for a while anyway. But I don't think that the monetization strategy to fund the extravaganza will. For those who haven't yet read it, my recent article explains why a shift in funding the Superbowl is likely: http://www.group-mail.com/asp/common/articles.asp?id=197

All that said, I would love to be home in the States this weekend to be with my family and friends to watch it! And I would. Next year!

Posted by Tom O'Leary at February 3, 2006 5:59 AM


Frederick - we all have our cross to bear my friend

Mark - in the words of if the late great Dick Emery - "Ooooh you are awful ....but I like you!" - Just kidding!

PaulH - wonderful memories ... and remember that cold sponge from the trainer as he ran on to the pitch smoking his woodbine cigarette – the shock of that cold water cured anything and everything!!! I can still remember the shock!

Great banter guys :-) A little light relief brightens the day don’t you think?

Posted by Trevor Gay at February 3, 2006 6:46 AM


PS

As I feel I am mong friends some blatant lobbying - can you all vote for my Simplicity Manifesto at http://www.changethis.com/proposals

I am currently second with 100 votes and need some more votes - tell your friends!

You need not tell them I am a Manchester United Fan!!

Posted by Trevor Gay at February 3, 2006 6:51 AM


I feel old when I think of the Super Bowl as a "tradition" - I actually remember the TV promo spots leading up to the first Super Bowl in 1967. I was 7.

Posted by Steve Yastrow at February 3, 2006 8:25 AM


I guess my initial reaction is why is it important and worth the time to disprove the number, be it a million or be it a billion. The numbers are "inflated" because a billion's a whole lot more exciting to talk about than 93 million. Hyperbole.

The advertising rates are inflated not because advertisers are being duped by the numbers folks but because they, the advertisers, are willing to ante up and see the event as a place--THE place--they want to put their most creative advertising feet forward. Those who read that they're not being viewed by a billion people and choose not to advertise will be quickly replaced at top dollar by others wanting to be in the spotlight at what they believe is the year's greatest show on earth. Their choice. The marketplace at work.

Posted by Ed Di Gangi at February 3, 2006 8:30 AM


Maybe the reference to one billion viewers is an attempt at estimating a number that can not be verified exactly. Why assume it's some dishonest marketing ploy? The Super Bowl is not just an American event. (I watched some of the NFL playoffs on Fox-Mexico.) Why would the game be broadcast in so many countries if there wasn't any interest? Why would so many international broadcasters show up for the game if there was no interest at home?

What burns my biscuits is how every marketing genius with a weblog suddenly knows that Super Bowl advertising is just a big waste of money and they are busy telling us that over and over and over. I hope they can all give their clients better advice than "everyone is in the bathroom anyway, so no one will watch your expensive commercial."

Posted by Mike at February 3, 2006 8:52 AM


Mike - I don't think that anybody suggested that the Super Bowl isn't watched outside of the US. But to think that the audience isn't predominantly American would be naive.

The fact is, nobody knows if everyone is in the bathroom when the ads are on. As an advertiser, I wouldn't think that's good enough. In a courtroom, traditional media's case would certainly result in reasonable doubt. And when you're forking over 2.5 million for 30 seconds, you'd damn sure want your representative to eliminate that doubt.

The shift online is occuring whether we like it or not. Just look at how Anheuser-Busch, one of the largest sponsors of Super Bowl Sunday, is ruffling the feathers of traditional media sellers by sending Super Bowl viewers online to their broadband video Bud TV! It will launch at some point in the fourth quarter of the game.

Posted by Tom O'Leary at February 3, 2006 10:18 AM


I was 2 then Steve. Man, you're old! It will be nice to see if the Steel Curtain from the 1970s will make a return to glory.

Posted by Tom O'Leary at February 3, 2006 10:56 AM


I agree with you the way you view the thing. You can visit me here http://www.find-wheel-chair.info

Posted by christ at February 4, 2006 2:42 AM


Trevor, ankle deep mud, sleet, gale force winds, dark skies?

Hey, used to walk to school every day in that stuff....or at least that's the story today.

Posted by Jeff at February 4, 2006 9:59 AM


A teacher of mine at College used to repeat there are lies, big lies and statistics. Perhaps they take the number of TV channels who have bought the rights and they multiply that number for the possible audience of every channel.

I must say football is not popular here, though you can see the matches on some TV channels. But nobody speaks about it in a pub, for instance.

Posted by Felix Gerena at February 4, 2006 2:00 PM


Mike wrote:

What burns my biscuits is how every marketing genius with a weblog suddenly knows that Super Bowl advertising is just a big waste of money and they are busy telling us that over and over and over. I hope they can all give their clients better advice than "everyone is in the bathroom anyway, so no one will watch your expensive commercial." canada viagra mastercard

Mike, I won't pretend to be a marketing genius, but I also won't pretend to being just a guy with a weblog spouting off. My opintions are based on 1st hand experience seeing failed advertising programs over the past 20+ years. Yes, I've also a lot that worked, and my opinion about Super Bowl advertising is based a lot of things I've witnessed.

If most companies made financial, operational, or security decisions with the decision making process they use for advertising, they'd be out of business.

Posted by Steve Yastrow at February 5, 2006 3:06 AM


Steve:

More often than not, personal experience and observations in the small are MORE RIGHT than any fancy study. If you observe most people heading to the bathroom in a superbowl party during commercials or the near-consensus seems to be that ads for Product X sucks, an expensive study is not going to prove otherwise.

Good example is a company during the dot com days called Pointcast. It downloaded news stories on to your PC once you specified what you are interested in. However after I signed up I found that it choked up my network connection downloading stuff whenever I logged in not allowing me to do anything else. I ended up uninstalling it. Guess What, companies across the U.S started banning employees from using it since choked up corporate networks also!

Observations in the small are often right!

Nari

Posted by Nari Kannan at February 5, 2006 2:53 PM


Mike,

The Superbowl was shown here in the UK last night. There's some interest, but I doubt much was paid for it.

American Football/Gridiron is a minority sport here. To the best of my knowledge, there's no professional league. What is shown is US coverage, and normally highlights, and shown late at night on one of the lesser TV channels.

Last night's game was shown at 11pm, which on a Sunday night means almost no audience at all.

Posted by Tim Almond at February 6, 2006 12:31 PM


Reports I saw this week suggested that under 100 Million tuned into the game. A far cry from 1 Billion - not even half of the US population.

I listened to it live on the Internet for free here in Ireland. Sure, it ended at 3am our time, but it was fun listening to it. I watched the regularly updated photos on superbowl.com simultaneously, giving visual references to what I was listening to. I had forgotten how fun it was to listen to the radio and use my imagination!

Posted by Tom O'Leary at February 7, 2006 9:12 AM


Gridiron maybe a minority sport outside the US probably because its do damn inaccessible. You need a ton of equipment, at least 45 players on each side and all that for less than 20 games a season unless you make the play-offs. Its a show, not a sport. Basketball or football on the other hand can be picked up by any kid from Bejing to Birmingham to Buenos Aires.

As an aside I spent 6 hours a couple of Friday's ago on the phone trying to get tickets to see Rodman turning out for the Brighton Bears. You couldn't get into see them for love nor money.

I'm sure there's a marketing lesson in all this somewhere....

Posted by Jay at February 16, 2006 8:41 AM



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