Comments

still cannot discount them in mass produced anything...agree on more complex products...so the western challenge is to still move on and not cling to "utility" products and services. If not them you have India, Brazil...

also on China and not able to produce private sector winners. Factoid: there are more Chinese restuarants in the US than ALL McD, Burger King, Wendy's locations put together...

Posted by vinnie mirchandani at March 8, 2006 10:11 AM

Chin has huge problems, but even if they just soak up all low-end manufacturing, they will be a major force to content with in the global economy. These are the jobs that can be done today by the rural population that has benefited yet. The lack of quality higher education will not be an issue here.

Personally, I think China will need to go through its own '60s revolution, and that will be painful but not fatal.

The biggest disruption isn't really talked about as much. China has had the one-child policy for a generation. The result is a huge imbalance of young males. The potential result:

increase in violent crime, increase in human trafficking (the purchase of wives), potential insurgency-type initiatives.

From an old Newsweek article: "According to their analysis, low-status young adult men with little chance of forming families of their own are "much more prone to attempt to improve their situation through violent and criminal behavior in a strategy of coalitional aggression. The growing crime rate in China which is being linked to China's massive "floating" or transient population, some 80 million of which are low-status males, seems to add weight to their observation."

Posted by Jeff at March 8, 2006 10:18 AM

I think china will slowly harness the power of the grass root level people too. They can't actually move faster then they want to because of the sure size of their human captial. More and more folks are moving into the big cities as work is there for them.
Yes, I agree the onechild concept will be certainly a problem for them. If this is removed then china will become the ethiopa of the east. No food to feed them.

Its a crafted strategy that is being played out there. If China stops production and export -half the globe will come to a grinding halt !!

Posted by /pd at March 8, 2006 10:23 AM

Tom I agree with the readings and 'China challenge' sentiment - especially because they really are hard core Communists at heart and by practice - this must cease.

The free world should encourage their grass roots' people to transcend like the Soviet Union did via its velvet revolution and evolve to a higher nation state[s] where their free will, freedom, and free choice is respected.

Free Internet knowledge and resources accelerates and informs China grass roots about what they are missing and how they are being deprived and the ownership they deserve.

Posted by Sean at March 8, 2006 10:50 AM

Change as much as China has done in the last 20 or so years, there's still the question of the government. They still hold a heavy hand and relinquishing power (to the people) is hard to see. And it does not seem like they see their role as a 21st century government the same as the rest of the world...

Posted by David at March 8, 2006 11:32 AM

Was this riff about China, the US or Ireland? There seem to be many similarities amongst them??

Posted by Tom O'Leary at March 8, 2006 11:45 AM

USA & Ireland = similar free market base #1/2 software exporters. China = dis sim merchantile fascist Godless state - okay with shooting you and family if you act up - needs to be manged into free world status.

Posted by Sean at March 8, 2006 12:30 PM

Of course, China or any other nation attempting to duplicate the American miracle are going to run into similar problems that we faced. Why would think it would be otherwise? Pollution, a little labor/social unrest, corruption on a wide scale--let's see where have seen this movie before--America, Europe, Russia and now China (and India). There is no free lunch and companies that persist in per se dis-utilization of American workers may pay a price. There are many, many ways in which the American labor force is second to none, despite the conventional (mostly BS) wisdom.

Posted by Carlos Leyva at March 8, 2006 12:48 PM

I agree with Jeff:

> Personally, I think China will need to go through
> its own '60s revolution, and that will be painful
> but not fatal.

My bet is that it will be driven by environmental and property issues. There are already thousands of protests every year there over things like water purity and eviction in favor of new (often corrupt) development projects.

Also, the Chinese government is not monolithic. Though it's authoritarian, it's strictures are enforced (or, just as often, ignored) by local politicians. As such, there are and will continue be regional variations that one hopes will spur competition. Shanghai was once ignored by Beijing because of its historical legacy as a Westernized, capitalist city. Now everyone wants to live there.

Posted by Derek Scruggs at March 8, 2006 3:49 PM

"Disposition towards rote learning." .....That struck a cord.

Well, I'm from India and I have seen a lot of this in India too.

Of course we have our "geniuses" . But compared to the number of engineers/scientists we churn every year, it's really miniscule.

Reminds me of a quote by the great scientist Richard Feynman.

"What you cannot create, you do not understand"

Rote learning = No real understanding = No creativity = mediocrity = really sad.

To be in the cutting edge of development, we need to invest in quality education.

Posted by Namith at March 8, 2006 8:14 PM

I'll get worried about China when they produce their first Tom Peters... and based on what I know about that country's culture & laws, it's not gonna happen any time soon...

Posted by Dan Ward at March 9, 2006 8:16 AM

Peter Lynch had the same skeptisim about the Japanese revolution over taking the world in the late 80's and wrote about it in "One Up On Wall Street." There is a prominent place for the American worker, even some blue collars, if we kick our current educational and parenting system the hell out of our lives.

Posted by Steve at March 9, 2006 3:21 PM