Sunday Edition
I admit that I got a perverse kick out of "Beware of Grand Visions and Foresight in Business," a column by John Kay in the Financial Times (04.11). Herewith an excerpt:
Competing for the Future by C.K. Prahalad and Gary Hamel was one of the most influential business books of the 1990s. ... The authors argued that 'the challenge is to pierce the fog of uncertainty and develop great foresight into the whereabouts of tomorrow's markets.' ... The claim that the constraints on success are limits of our imagination lifts our hearts. ...
Hindsight is a harsh taskmaster. Some of the companies singled out in the business book of the 1980s, In Search of Excellence, such as Wang and Atari, subsequently performed badly. Still, a 2002 Fortune study reviewing the companies Tom Peters and Robert Waterman had picked two decades earlier showed that they had generated shareholder returns in excess of the Standard & Poor's index. This is not true of the Prahalad and Hamel 12, which yielded 6.2 percent per year against 9 percent for the market as a whole. The four companies [Prahalad and Hamel] praised for 'regenerating their strategy' were all subsequently acquired by larger companies in the same industry. AT&T, Compaq, JPMorgan and Banker's Trust ...
I guess my perverse pleasure comes because almost every "big" management book seems to need to devote a paragraph to trashing the companies Bob and I picked. None cites even a dollop of data to support their point ... which doesn't slow them down in the least. We did indeed make our share of mistakes—but the bunch-as-a-whole have been remarkably resilient.
Ah, well ...
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Before blogging became all the rage, Tom was posting book reviews and Observations (essentially early blog posts) to this site. You can find the archives below.
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Comments
well, Tom, one way to reduce risk is - to increase the sample pool...I just read a book called Blueprint to a Billion where this ex McKinsey guy David Thomson analyzes 387 companies across verticals which had exponential growth to a billion...he probably learned from you and CK! see how his examples do in a dacade...
Posted by vinnie mirchandani at April 16, 2006 9:51 PM
My late beloved Dad told me 'The easiest job to do is someone else's'
I see critics like the guys you talk of as envious people, 'half empty glass people' who have probably never researched anything. Ask the critics what they personally have done positively to advance management and leadership thinking in the last 30 years compared to your efforts Tom and those of Bob Waterman and your contempories who have at least raised the bar!
What a sad job it must be to be a critic - just think of it - making a living out of pulling apart the efforts of others - who would want to do that as a job unless you are a saddo?
Happy Easter from li'l ol' England :-)
Posted by Trevor at April 17, 2006 5:59 AM
Maybe John Kerry can assist - in '08 presidential planning he promises to have not TWO but THREE positions on all issues including best MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.
Posted by Sean at April 17, 2006 8:15 AM
Even in the coldness of Siberia, some ONE couldn't acknowledge the door being held open? Snarkiness is all the rage these days. Where has simple human decency gone?
Posted by Steve Sherlock at April 17, 2006 7:04 PM
Isn't it now a basic law of science that the act of observation changes the observed? Those who observe--such as you, Tom--cannot control the hubris or self-satisfaction that may come to those companies who get named to "best managed" lists. It's a fact of life that some companies fail by start to believe their own bull bagels, if you will, and that's not the faults of the "gurus".
Keep up the good work, Tom.
Posted by John Ray at April 17, 2006 8:10 PM
I think I was in High school when I read that book :-)
Kind a fakie but when you trash the big guys you look bigger. I hate that but many people do it.
Tom, your names simply BIG. which is good.
At that given time frame and conditions I believe you were still right.
Too many people in business don't understand that business can't go against the laws of natural science.
or against mother nature or whatever.
Even 101 thermodynamics, and evolution science teaches you that things "change".
by the way this doesn't mean I understand it.
P.S. Just used a quote last month from the In Search of Excellence in a seminar in Japan and got trashed by a big marketing guru.
Got my share of my perverse pleasure and not gonna stop it. I love it.
Ha!!:-)
Posted by Arata Mitsumatsu at April 17, 2006 11:24 PM
I continue to re-read the book because there are many messages contained within it. Years ago the Eagles did a song with a line, "You call something paradise, kiss it goodbye." Once noticed it's tough to stay on top because everyone comes gunning for you, even the critics looking for a way to tear it down. It's easy to judge...it's tougher to create. Tom, please keep creating stimulating stuff!
Posted by Craig at April 18, 2006 7:55 AM
Random thoughts:
Why does justifying my theory so often mean trashing yours? Why can't we learn from, build on and develop what went on before without having to be personal about it? Or so arrogant as to suggest, "I'm right therefore you're wrong!"
Craig: great taste! The song was "The Last Resort" on the "Hotel California" album.
Odds are that if you wait long enough (and 20 years is a good start) you'll find plenty of exceptions to some old observations. I wonder how many medical procedures from 20 years ago are the same?
Maybe what we should look at is not so much companies as management teams. If "built to last" isn't really possible (look back further than 20 years...) then maybe asking if these people "built to impact" should be the measure. After all, it's the people, stupid...!
Posted by Mark JF at April 18, 2006 8:27 AM
Hey Mark - Amazing coincidence! The Eagles are my favorite band of all time. Last week I bought two tickets for their farewell UK tour in June.It has always been my ambition to see the perform live and now it is happening! I can't really beleive it! Maybe I am easily pleased :-) We are going to the gig at the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham which is close to home on June 13th. The tour is virtually sold out and they have put an extra concert on at the NEC in Birmingham the following night because of the overwhelming demand for tickets.
The Last Resort is my all time favorite track. Don Henley - what a voice! - sings that with all his heart. It is a wonderful emotional song with many messages for us all.
Posted by Trevor at April 18, 2006 9:41 AM
The Financial Times article says it's a 2002 Fortune study, but I think it refers to this article in Forbes in 2002:
http://www.forbes.com/2002/10/04/1004excellent.html cheapest price for viagra
The above gives the long-term performance of the companies from In Search of Excellence.
Posted by cathy at April 18, 2006 10:04 AM
WOWWW!!! this is really interesting stuff
Posted by maggiewaters at April 19, 2006 7:50 AM