Comments

I must disagree. You are certainly not idiots - geniuses is more like it! In 1982 no one could not have "predicted" the coming collapse of the Soviet Union. It was after all the height of the cold war and communist movements were prevalent across the globe. According to them, they had "capitalism on the run" and the west was decadent and weak.

Amazing what 25 years and the lure of private enterprise can do for the leader of a fallen totalitarian state. As a good capitalist I am both unsurprised that Gorbachev has taken this route and delighted to see his unapologetic embrace of it.

Posted by Andrew Hayden at October 5, 2007 10:18 AM

Free enterprise, freedoms & wealth creation brought down the Soviets & Gorbie knows luxury like an oil sheik :>]

And now Russia is creating wealth like they invented it - albeit saber rattle time with Europe & delight in "coalitions" Iran/Iraq quagmire :>[

Peters & Waterman with Condie to kick start a new middle east free enterprise & wealth initiative & how about PM Brown as perfect new high finance USA hand puppet :>]

Posted by John at October 5, 2007 11:54 AM

I am ALWAYS an optimist and it is truly magnificent what has happened in the USSR. I am really sorry to be a party pooper but before we get too excited about 'progress' can I say that 25 years ago we wouldn’t have predicted that in 2007 - 20,000 people - mainly children - would die every day on our ONE planet - simply due to extreme poverty. In my occasional melancholy moments I think about whether my great, great, grandchildren will look back on 2007 and our supposedly advanced civilisation with the same horror as we look back to 1807 when slavery was ‘acceptable’ and the world ‘stood by’ until the great William Wilberforce finally achieved the abolition of the slave trade. It is at best ironic in our supposedly advanced world that we can stand by and allow 20,000 people to die every day for reasons that can be avoided. As Bono says this is not a charity issue it is a justice issue.

Posted by Trevor Gay at October 5, 2007 4:04 PM

After reading NNT's "Black Swan", I have somehow lost interest in the word ‘predict’…I think, our epistemological arrogance makes us feel ‘we know everything and want to predict everything’ and therefore is the root cause of trying to predict even the unknown unknowns a.k.a. uncertainty. So, I don’t think it’s a big deal if TP & BW didn’t predict Oct’07 LV Ad featuring Gorbachev (which, I believe truly is an ‘uncertain’ event, not necessarily 'unfortunate' for LV). After all it has taken over 150 years for LV to clean their radar screens and suddenly discover emerging super powers like China, India, Russia (to feature Gorbachev in their ad) to help grow their kitty. I feel we are not far away from seeing all heads of state (both alive & dead) carrying a LV Bag / accessories in the days to come. That's what I call "French freakonomics" or "Dead Man Walking"!

Posted by K.Sriram at October 6, 2007 12:51 AM

"Black Swan" is a mixed bag. USA's hand-puppet PM Brown says NO elections - conservatives are strong & he shrinks in fear = who could have Predicted that?! :>]

Posted by John at October 8, 2007 6:40 AM

Tom - you also failed to predict that Elton John would be happily married, an English soccer player would be one of the US's top earners and Apple would have re-invented itself as the pre-eminent "computer" company of the digital age. Wow! I for one plan to enjoy watching and contributing to the next 25 years.

Posted by Mark JF at October 9, 2007 3:25 AM