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Resilience and Black Swans

I am mesmerized by Black Swans. We must live day to day, year to year, gettin' on with getting' on. Surprises aplenty are not so few and not so far between—and we've mostly learned how to cope and at least muddle through.

In fact, we can't live life, personal or professional, awaiting a Black Swan to alight on our pond. Still, one may-probably will do so—and our response-behavior will, as Mr Taleb claims, determine our life's course.

Well if we can't plan for it, and we can't let it distract us 24 hours a day every day, what can we do?

Beats me, is mostly my response.

But I have fallen deeply in love with a word that may be of use ... Resilience.

To deal with the absurdly unlikely, we can find resilient people and shape our organization to be more or less able to respond to a knockout blow—right out of left field.

Below (and in a Special Presentation attached), you'll find some musings (exactly the right word) on the idea of resilience. These are raw, "key words" really, meant to do no more than get you moving on this topic—which I heartily suggest.

Possible Attributes of Resilient People:

Inner calm (Buddhist-like?); think Tiger Woods
High self-knowledge ("comfortable in own skin")
Breadth of experience—drove a cab, worked construction, ran Alaska tours ... not just a variety of assignments in a traditional career progression.
Sense of, "Ah, my moment" (e.g., Giuliani)
Lover of modestly controlled chaos (bored amidst calm—e.g., FDR)
Reach out effortlessly to a wide variety of people (in general and on the fly)
Bizarrely energetic
Known for integrity, in the sense of "straight shooter"
Hires resilient people per se in key positions! (All senior leadership roles?)
Sense of humor
Empathy ("I feel your pain")
"Cruelty" (Must make tough decisions instantaneously, without looking back; not "confident," but overwhelming sense of urgency to press ahead)
Decisive, but not rigid
Strong individual, equally strong team player
Understands the chain of command—and evades it as necessary
Comfortable being challenged by thinkers, but a strong "doer" bias overall
A person of Hope (religious or "religious-like"?)

Not necessarily: ex-college quarterback with a history of comebacks (Why: All within the rules, within the context of that which has been practiced)

Better(??): Ocean sailboat racer; ER doc; public health doc; astronaut; combat experience; hostage negotiator; survived in hopeless circumstances through guile and grit; seeks "independent duty"

Tests: Have the lights "unexpectedly" go out during an employment interview, followed by fire alarm, etc; focus on resilience per se in reference checks

Possible Attributes of Resilient Organizations:

Hire resilient folks at all levels and in all functions—explicit about so doing
Promote resilience—explicit about so doing
Decentralization!!!!!!!!! (organization structure, physical configuration, systems)
Shadow "emergency organization"—ready to roll
Very serious "War gaming" (better than nothing—unless it leads to false confidence)
Redundancy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Culture of (1) self-starting, (2) caring and respect, (3) Execution is Priority #1, (4) Accountability-responsibility—100% of folks
Culture of Resilience (as de jure explicit "plank" of organizational values set)
Talk it up!! (but in terms of "growth opportunity"—not fear mongering)
MBWA—e.g., great, intimate communication all the time about everything
Transparency (all in the know, none in the dark)
Financial padding
Excellent equipment (But ...)
Training >>>>> Equipment
Ability to get by for (quite) a while without IS-IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Test whole org in uncomfortable situations
Promote an unusually high share of mavericks
Diversity per se!!!!!!!!!!!

Tom Peters posted this on 05/19/08.

Comments

I'm picturing astronauts repairing their craft without the proper tools or equipment, because no one foresaw what they were facing.

I'm picturing my band closing one evening doing nothing but requests from the owner of the clubâ€”songs we hadn't rehearsed; had never even tried to play, in most casesâ€”and earning a weekly gig for the entire summer.

Critical task or trivial, I'd say this resilience thing will continue to be the difference between survival/thriving, and dinosaur.

Posted by Joel D Canfield at May 19, 2008 11:21 AM

This is a great, great post and I am printing it out for reference before every future interview. Thanks so much for putting it in writing!

Posted by jacquelyn at May 19, 2008 11:33 AM

This is probably covered in the list somewhere, but I think the ability to live with uncertainty without panic is in there as well. When I think about life as an independent entrepreneur, it strikes me that I had to become very comfortable with the idea that things would work out if I stayed focused. Resiliency to me is looking at cash flow (and lack thereof sometimes), setting aside the worry (concern is okay), and just knowing that doing the right thing will take care of itself. Worked for me so far...

Posted by Mike Neiss at May 19, 2008 12:52 PM

I'd add: Goal-oriented, able to prioritise issues, takes responsibility, shares or devolves credit, thinks on his/her feet and comfortable with changing everything when the world changes, too.

Posted by Mark JF at May 19, 2008 1:16 PM

Great stuff, Tom! This is a very important quality of people - but not, however, easily described or explained. We do a much better job pointing to people who have it (or had it) (such as: FDR, Churchill, Lincoln, Washington, Patton, Grant, etc.) than we do describing what it is that they had that helped(?) them to take their black swan by the horns and ride it to victory (ok ok, so I mixed my metaphors - but the imagery was worth it). We (or at least I) tend to come up with leaders during wartime probably because they are the most dramatic displays of courage, intelligence, determination, resilience, and all those other qualities we admire so greatly but are hard to see without the trying times to display them.

Reading the group of possible attributes (both by TP and the bloggers) make me think that we have a hard task - to some extent these qualities are not specific to resilience, but to good leaders in general. And it gets more complicated when we think of people who we would agree were resilient but only have some of the characteristics - in fact - comparing any two could find more differences than commonalities in the qualities, yet we would all agree they were resilient. Makes me think that perhaps it is not any particular combination of qualities that makes someone resilient, but rather how the person uses his/her qualities to good effect when confronted with the black swan. In this way we are saying at least that they are resourceful.

But then we say the exact same thing about intelligence (that is, when the psychometricians do not monopolize the discussion). Intelligence, or acting intelligently, in Biology is defined by the ability of the animal to respond to adverse circumstances with creative solutions. In people this is a compound quality too - how do you separate it from being careful, listening well, or empathy?

I suppose I am getting at that people are called 'resilient' for different reasons in different situations (just as people can be intelligent in different ways). With absolutely all due respect, I am not sure the laundry list of qualities that could help comprise a resilient response to a black swan event/situation results in an adequate way to think about resilience.

Perhaps it sounds to nuanced to some, but for Washington, determination and empathy (his soldiers loved him), salted with lotsa luck, brought him farther than anyone thought possible.

Posted by Martin Koning-Bastiaan at May 19, 2008 3:25 PM

Resilience? â€“ For me itâ€™s about taking the crap on the chin â€“ getting knocked down and getting up â€“ time and time again. Resilience is about KNOWING you are right and yet accepting some people think you are DEFINITELY WRONG and living with that paradox without throwing yourself under a bus :-)

Posted by Trevor Gay at May 19, 2008 5:12 PM

A thought-provoking post. It reminded me of a passage in an interesting little book "Generals and Generalship" by Field Marshal Lord Wavell. After commenting on the British practice of testing military equipment by dropping it off a tower and then burying it in the mud for a few days, Wavell continues:

"Now the mind of the general in war is buried, not merely for 48 hours but for days and weeks, in the mud and sand of unreliable information and uncertain factors, and may at any time receive, from an unsuspected move of the enemy, an unforseen accident, or a treaherous turn in the weather, a bump equivalent to a drop of at least a hundred feet on to something hard. Delicate mechanism is of little use in war; and this applies to the mind of the commander as well as his body; to the spirit of an army as well as to the weapons and instruments with which it is equipped."

Posted by david foster at May 19, 2008 7:37 PM

Resilience-"an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change." I'm thinking be it literally or figuratively, this resilience thought is a keeper.

Give me a leader who exemplifies the personal attributes described and you will have the culture that is essential for any team to succeed when faced with any challenge, Black Swan or otherwise. Culture is an enabler. Folks can feel free to think and are comfortable being able to express a thought without "fear".,,of ridicule, rejection, retribution, etc. Folks feel confident they have the tools and skills to be the best and think and react accordingly.,,,the spirit of the army if you will as david foster notes in the Wavell quote. Couple this with their being "equipped" with the essential tools of time, money, information, training needed to meet performance expectations. This is gonna be one formidable army to be sure.

Posted by Dave Wheeler at May 19, 2008 11:19 PM

Do organisations reward resilience?

Posted by PaulH at May 20, 2008 9:23 AM

Punt the bullies out of your organization NOW!

They're sucking the juices out of your people and preventing innovation. Their targets are the excellent people but the observers are keeping their heads down too.

Leave the bullies there and the initiators will flee and the team players exhaust themselves just keeping each other going.

When you hear the beat of the black swan's wings overhead all will collapse.

Instead, chuck them out and when they're gone, build up the survivors. They may look like they're fine, but they're damaged. Rebuild their trust in the organization's willingness to tolerate failures and half-successes (Fail. Forward. Fast)

People who've successfully rebuilt after one disaster will face the next one with courage, even enthusiasm for the challenge.

Come to their rescue when they need it and they'll have a best to give you when you need it.

Learned optimism = Resilience

Posted by Lois Gory at May 20, 2008 12:12 PM

It is probably most difficult to test whole organizations in uncomfortable situations when individuals therein (management and frontliners alike) often seek comfort with all of their being.

We even turn uncomfortable situations to those of comfort, even when it means self-deception or continuously doing the same thing over and over again (useless delusional actions) expecting a different result. No innovation there.

Mavericks make the establishment uncomfortable and team members often respond accordingly, alienating them. Often times it is the maverick who has the answer. But often times it is also the maverick that causes his or her own alienation. Embrace them, nonetheless.

Posted by Judith Ellis at May 20, 2008 5:33 PM

Lois- Your observation "Come to their rescue when they need it and they'll have a best to give you when you need it." is, in my experience, 1000% EXACTLY what will happen. As you also observe trust, whether gaining it for the first time or rebuilding it, is exactly the prescription for how to do it. Trust and teamwork,,,like Lays Potato Chips...you can't have just one and excel. Teamwork is built and retained on the foundation of trust and credibility.

Thank you for that thought!

Posted by Dave Wheeler at May 20, 2008 8:34 PM

This post really inspired me.
In my business and my writing, I've always focused on the theme of SURVIVAL: what it takes to survive in a world and a marketplace with no rules (and no walls).
I'd never used the 'r' word before, but looking at these attributes, they articulate all the qualities required in Survivors. I learnt early on in my career that success is about Survival Of The Fittest.
'Resilience' wasn't in my vocabulary, but it is now.

Posted by Ian Sanders at May 21, 2008 1:04 AM

The Permalink for this post doesn't seem to be working.

Posted by david foster at May 21, 2008 8:20 AM

thanks, dave, for the notice on the permalink. we're looking into that.

Posted by erik hansen at May 21, 2008 8:33 AM

Bravo, Tom, great start!
I recommend:
-Ability to "relax into and take joy in self-directed endeavor"(from Paul Stark in Missouri);
-Readiness for change.
-Patience with ability to discern the correct time for action.
We need to recognize that "sustainability" is impossible without "resiliency" (think environment, energy, health...any business...any human endeavor...any natural system).

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Posted by Randy at May 21, 2008 1:04 PM

Resiliency, the great word THAT WORKS from Materiel Sciences, with diverse usages in all fields of knowledge. Without a doubt, this term works wonders in management and business settings. My gratitude for the insightful post of yours plus the invitation to share ideas on this topic.

What resiliency represents is absolutely great. It’s difficult to get it a synonymous. Many Academies of Other Language don’t get it and don’t know how to translate it. Resiliency is like being (a) Stoic, (b) Agile, © Bendable, (d) Abatable, (e) Versatile, (f) Flexible, (g) Intact, and (h) Reversible.

Quite some attributes for leaders, statesmen, managers, consultants, and so, particularly for those incumbents facing today’s industry challenges. Many authors suggest instituting a “portfolio of innovation of small bets.”

I will suggest that along with serendipity, pseudo-serendipity, fuzzy logic, lateral thinking, people must also get driven into being tenaciously resilient to unveil the strategic surprise in advance.

Posted by Andres Agostini (Andy) at May 22, 2008 2:59 PM