Saturday Edition
There's the "imminent" threat to American economic pre-eminence from China and India. There was a similar, "on our last legs" threat 25 years ago from Japan. And economist and former MIT biz-school dean Lester Thurow claimed a decade or so ago that Europe would eclipse us in the years (or was it weeks?) to come.
There were the all-important management pronouncements of Peter Drucker—peaking in the 60s or early 70s. There was Michael Porter, and perhaps yours truly, in the 80s and 90s. There was the Carter-Reagan recession. The Bush I recession. The Bush II recession. The Internet-new economy moment—and subsequent implosion. The savings and loan crisis, the sub-prime crisis. The Latin, and Asian, debt crises.
In the meantime, and despite the startling rise of others (Japan and Southeast Asia and Europe, now China and India and Eastern Europe), the Good Ole American Economy just seems to mimic the Energizer Bunny. In "The Future of American Power" (Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3, May/June 2008), Fareed Zakaria delivers these fascinating statistics on the United States' share of global output:
1913: 32%
1960: 26%
1980: 22%
2000: 27%
2007: 26%
Recession. Bubble. Drucker. Porter-Peters. Doesn't seem to matter much—the train just keeps on rolling. As I said or implied, pretty damned amazing that, as huge parts of the world have gotten wealthy, our overall share has not declined ...
Reasons?
Save that for another day.
The goal here: The world as "we" (Americans) know it ain't exactly coming to an end in the next few weeks—so, with good conscience, fill up the tank (ha!) and head to the beach, or at least the couch, for some old-fashioned summer relaxation and, uh, Kindle reading.
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Comments
Tom - Kindle? Do you have a Kindle? If so, how about a quick review of the device? I am just not certain it is worth the price -but it sure is KOOL!
Posted by Al at June 10, 2008 9:54 AM
Question is how has the US (or Europe) for that matter adapted to meet threats from the Far East etc.
Advantage or threats (either way) is transitory before the other side reacts and does something about it.
Posted by PaulH at June 10, 2008 10:47 AM
Gordon Chang has a very persuasive (and somewhat contrarian) view that China is like to suffer a collapse as it transitions to a true free market economy.
http://www.gordonchang.com/books.htm
Posted by Mike LaChapelle at June 10, 2008 10:49 AM
The evidence may well suggests things are looking good but ‘resting on our laurels’ is never a good place to be. Manchester United coach Sir Alex Ferguson recently said his players need to show him they are still ‘hungry.’ This was immediately after his team won yet another incredible ‘double’ of English Premiership Title and the European Champions League.
I am not one to spread gloom or despondency and I am proud to be a 99% glass full person. I am equally not confident in saying we can afford to relax because the figures look good.
Tom Peters regularly reminds us of the Michelangelo quote about our greatest danger is aiming too low.
I suggest complacency is sometimes the precursor of a slow decline to obscurity.
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 10, 2008 5:17 PM
I'm surprised that I found myself taking some pride in your post, Tom. I'm usually turned off by anything that smacks of American triumphalism - especially in 2008. But I guess context is everything. Unlike many US political figures, policy makers, and pundits, you're not building a case with your facts to justify a foreign policy of American exceptionalism.
Posted by John O'Leary at June 10, 2008 9:36 PM
I do wish people would stop using the word "threat" when it comes to India's economic rise. We're not here to threaten anybody - like people everywhere, we only want a better life for ourselves and our families.
Posted by Chetan Dhruve at June 11, 2008 2:01 AM
I recently attended a service conference. One of the speakers there was talking about his book (only briefly!) on service delivery - translated into 2 languages English and Chinese. I says that the Chinese want a large % of their GDP to be service based within 10 years. One of the comments in the pres was if you are in manufacturing and doing ok stick with it! every one else is going services............
Posted by PaulH at June 11, 2008 7:11 AM
Bravo, Tom! (YES! YOU READ RIGHT! I SAID IT: “BRAVO TOM!” Shall I repeat myself yet again?) The reality as it seems to me is a notion of who is on top and for how long. Now this statement has less to do with protectionism or as John said "American triumphalism," but more to do with the history and the ebb and flow of power.
Who has more of power and for how long has long been the pertinent question. In times past, in order to keep such power in tack inbreeding and marriages among people of power in neighboring countries was the practice-- not so today. The rise of the entrepreneur and innovation are far greater than marriages.
I will remind people here that power does not necessarily have to do with the numbers in any country of emergence. Perhaps it has more to do with the many components of influence in various countries (what is the BBC? what is the AP?) and the power of entrepreneurialism and innovation. I might also add that there is something to be said for the notion of unity so created in the founding documents of the US.
Where there is goodness, in spite of error, resilience follows. Americans survive/thrive because in spite of failures, we are a good people whose founding documents propel us to greatness--that which is giving, humble, innovative, accepting, powerful, democratic, entreating, and entrepreneurial.
Our very spirit of entrepreneurialism seems to fight against complacency. When other societies were feudal and hierarchical this nation sprung to the rights of the individual and the notion of community. It clung to the notion of freedom. Though, like all nations, there is no perfection. The important thing is to become that "More Perfect Union" which we are forever becoming.
Another thought: do you think that the advent of the Internet (or many such other inventions) could have come in a feudal society or one where democracy was inhibitive?
Posted by Judith Ellis at June 11, 2008 7:18 AM
You are right Chetan - the words we use are important. As far as I can tell the only 'threat' from India is a positive desire to improve its own economy and thereby the sharing of wealth much more fairly around the one planet that is loaned to us by God for safe keeping. I wish the Indian economy continued success. There is PLENTY of room at the top as the saying goes.
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 11, 2008 2:18 PM
Public service announcements or commercials? As with any new initiative or global shift,
Posted by finty at June 11, 2008 5:39 PM
Trevor, thank you. I've always believed that the only really useful thing about being a superpower is the ability to help the less fortunate nations. If India cannot - does not - do that as an economic superpower (whenever that happens), we will have failed.
Posted by Chetan Dhruve at June 12, 2008 12:58 AM
Wise words Chetan thank you. I hope you don’t mind my sharing some beautiful words from the Bible which of course remains the best selling management and leadership book of all time. I respectfully suggest no management consultant, politician or business person could even attempt to write a more appropriate and powerful set of words about the purpose of wealth creation as these from Timothy.
‘Command those who are rich in this present world not to be arrogant nor to put their hope in wealth, which is so uncertain, but to put their hope in God, who richly provides us with everything for our enjoyment. Command them to do good, to be rich in good deeds, and to be generous and willing to share. In this way they will lay up treasure for themselves as a firm foundation for the coming age, so that they may take hold of the life that is truly life.’ (1 Timothy 6:17–19)
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 12, 2008 4:02 AM
Trevor - perfect words from Timothy.
Posted by Chetan Dhruve at June 12, 2008 5:14 AM
In the words of Madonna, "Pappa don't preach!" This is what's so off putting about religion -- the preaching as if nothing is being done by people to help other people. We have been duly charged with helping our brothers and sisters in other parts of the world and we have done so. We are indeed our brother's keepers but our brothers also have a responsibility of being kept. In many nations the complications of policies and customs have to first be dealt with internally. The banner of goodness or the very deed itself will never be enough externally.
Internal policies and mindset adjustments are necessary. These issues are indeed complicated. Yes, others can be charged to do good deeds and people in various nations do such deeds, but the internal stuff has to be dealt with, including certain necessary freedoms for a civil society. Nations, as I see it, are about "We the People." And the people of various nations must lead.
Chetan...my sincere desire for India and other developing countries of the world is peace and abundant prosperity in wealth, health and happiness. (We remain in "pursuit of happiness." Although a noun, happiness is an action word.) Your very assertion of India becoming a superpower (and I'm not hating on you...at all!) is positional and proves my earlier point about the pertinent question of power.
viagra brand online Who has it (power in many forms) and for how long? This is the historical question until we sincerely evolve as a global people. Yes...I know there is that rosy view of room at the top etc. But until we evolve, which we have not done as of yet (but there still remains hope) human nature will continue to seek positions of power. Perhaps each of us needs to redefine power in our various positions personally and professionally and the redefinition of power globally will take hold. Policy, however, is forever needed to govern. But the people must lead.
Posted by Judith Ellis at June 12, 2008 6:03 AM
'This is what's so off putting about religion -- the preaching as if nothing is being done by people to help other people.'
I’m sorry it is ‘off putting’ to you Judith but hopefully not to everyone. Some no doubt would say the same about comments on this Blog that amount to ‘preaching’ and have nothing to do with religion. One person’s comment is another person’s preaching – like beauty - it is in the eye of the beholder.
Preaching is not a word I would use when merely quoting a very short and relevant extract from the world’s most popular book of all time – particularly popular I’m happy to say in the States.
My ‘rosy’ view of room at the top’ is perhaps the opposite of what might be perceived as arrogant and blinkered assumptions that great economic powers are actually ‘at the top’ of any league table. Sorry - I just don’t think the world gets to be a better place whilst some great economic powers have the patronising view they are in some way ‘superior’ and can ‘teach’ the rest of the world when the measurement is only by wealth. The demise of the British Empire is a classic historical testament to that arrogance and patronising view of power through wealth. I hope present day economic powers learn from us Brits about arrogance and patronising assumptions. As Mr Ghandi famously replied when asked what he thought of democracy in Britain - ‘I think it would be a very good idea.’
generic viagra prescription onlineI am not in the habit of ‘preaching’ to anyone – it’s not my style. I didn’t wish my comment be interpreted in any way as preaching – this is not a forum for such preaching. My comment was addressed to support Chetan’s earlier comment – nothing more, nothing less. Sorry if it causes anyone any discomfort.
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 12, 2008 9:06 AM
"Let others praise you and not you yourself."
Posted by Judith Ellis at June 12, 2008 9:45 AM
Trevor...you do seem to believe in tangents or better yet redirecting thoughts to suit particular agendas. It is not a question of who is teaching whom or one of superiority and inferiority. My point as stated, perhaps overlooked, is to "redefine power in our various positions personally and professionally and the redefinition of power globally will take hold."
Posted by Judith Ellis at June 12, 2008 9:54 AM
Hi Judith - 'Trevor...you do seem to believe in tangents or better yet redirecting thoughts to suit particular agendas.'
You are absolutely right and absolutely wrong about me.
*Right in that I do LOVE tangents.
*Wrong in that I have no 'agenda' whatsoever. I don’t even know what you mean by that remark. I simply enjoy discussion and exchange of thoughts. That is what I think Blogs are supposed to be about.
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 12, 2008 11:04 AM
In the words of Richard, "whatever." No love lost. All the best.
Posted by Judith Ellis at June 12, 2008 12:32 PM
Ditto Judith.
Posted by Trevor Gay at June 12, 2008 12:35 PM