Comments

The randomness of success is also a (depressing) recurring thought for me.
It can also explain why experience is relatively insignificant in business/creative ventures. Each project is so unique that we can seldom leverage experience - actually sometimes we have to unlearn.

Posted by Bruno Collet at August 26, 2008 1:08 PM

I couldn’t agree with you more about ‘trying stuff.’

I’ve no idea how many ‘tries’ I’ve made since leaving corporate healthcare and becoming self employed almost 4 years ago – probably thousands. My motivation is that my family and I have to eat so I have to work. My simple logic extends from that to tell me the more tries I make, the more chance there is someone will take a chance on me. And when the ‘tries’ don't result in anything (and that is often) I just keep trying. There is nothing complex about this stuff. I take a ‘shot gun approach’ – some of the pellets will hit the target and many will miss. I know I could use a sniper rifle which would give me far more accuracy and more guarantee of hitting the one target I’m aiming at ….. But that would be boring, rational and predictable. Probably more secure however! …. But hey, life is too short not to have some fun.

Posted by Trevor Gay at August 26, 2008 5:06 PM

"The random madness of flies" its always worked for me!

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Posted by Rob at August 27, 2008 8:39 AM

In Hillary Clinton's impressive speech at the Democratic National Convention she spoke of the importance of keep going. This includes trying many things. I'm sure the former slave Harriet Tubman, who after freeing herself, returned back to the South countless of times with the the help of Abolitionists through the Underground Railroad, tried many things and found various routes to freedom, undetered by the internal voices, those of others, and barking dogs.

Here is a portion of Clinton's speech:

"By following the example of a brave New Yorker , a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad.

And on that path to freedom, Harriet Tubman had one piece of advice.

If you hear the dogs, keep going.

If you see the torches in the woods, keep going.

If they're shouting after you, keep going.

Don't ever stop. Keep going.

If you want a taste of freedom, keep going.

Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.

I’ve seen it in you. I’ve seen it in our teachers and firefighters, nurses and police officers, small business owners and union workers, the men and women of our military – you always keep going.

Keep going means trying again and again and never giving up! I remind myself of this daily.

We are Americans. We're not big on quitting."

Yes, try many things! And whatever you do keep going! I remind myself of this daily.

Posted by Judith Ellis at August 28, 2008 9:49 AM

I think there's something else going on here with the new emphasis on randomness nudging aside decades of 'cause and effect' management learning. It's something to do with pattern spotting. Patterns in themselves are recurring - that's what makes them patterns. The patterns we spotted in the past, on which TQM, BPR and all the other acronymical improvement programs are based, assume pretty simple cause and effect: pull this lever and that happens. If what happens is good for the company and I happened to be in charge when it happened, ipso facto I'm a great leader/manager. Now we are far more aware of the complexity of systems and of what makes people perform well at work; quantum physics, with all its randomness, has displaced Newtonian physics, with all its certainty, as the scientific lens through which we see the world; and we're all rightly unconvinced by the simple cause and effect patterns we have been shown over the years. The only problem with that is if you look for patterns of randomness (and yes there's a contradiction in terms, since randomness has no pattern, but put that aside), as with looking for red cars on the highway, you'll see it everywhere.

Posted by Phil Dourado at September 2, 2008 6:45 AM

I think it is often very difficult for us to reconcile that we do not know everything and that science may not have all of the answers to all of our questions. Hence, we look for patterns and signs, even in randomness, which Phil points out is indeed a contradiction. One of the differences between the Old and New Testaments is that of faith versus signs. Faith is the proof.

The notion of "patterns of randomness" makes us feel as if we have knowledge of all that's out there, at any given moment, when it is clear that we do not and may not ever. It's really OK not to know everything, and it's really OK to think that while we may become aware of the improbable, we may not be able to predict it, though perhaps lessen its effect (a la Taleb.)

The search for patterns seeks to reconcile the improbable; the acceptance of randomness stands knowledge on its head.

Posted by Judith Ellis at September 3, 2008 11:47 PM

With a PREPARED AND OPEN MIND, nothing works better than perseverance in extremis. However, randomness and pseudo-randomness must never be underestimated.

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Posted by Andres Agostini (Andy) at September 7, 2008 8:51 PM

Fuzzy logic must never be underestimated either.

Posted by Andres Agostini (Andy) at September 7, 2008 9:02 PM

Randomness and, even, pseudo-randomness (including a blending between the two) can be set forward on purpose. They can also make their landing via the throughput of a system.

When experiment and directing such an effort with serendipity and/or pseudo-serendipity, randomness and, also, pseudo-randomness will make iterative appearances.

Fuzzy logic (among other factors), as the economy and finance is electronically ubiquitous (connectedness), always impacting, subtlety or dramatically, randomness and pseudo-randomness.

Again, ACTING WITH THE STRINGIEST DETERMINATION AND TRULY BUSINESSLIKE IS REALLY CRUCIAL. Incidentally, Has one presented himself to a demanding venture capital to discuss a major business plan? As when presenting in court, better wear a great apparel unless one has another
POV.

Posted by Andres Agostini (Andy) at September 8, 2008 1:05 PM